High Price Targets
We recently went viral on X for posting quite high price targets.
Here's the rationale for why we believe $370k BTC is not out of the question.
- The rails are in place to capture large inflows.
The prerequisite for large inflows into BTC is now in place. The BTC ETF means that there is a direct path for speculative demand to actually translate into large BTC inflows. BTC has direct access to more potential buyers than ever, and the friction for those buyers has been greatly reduced from having to move money across platforms
Additionally, the BTC ETFs cemented Coinbase as a trusted custody provider, giving confidence (post-FTX) to larger institutions who may eventually want to own BTC.
With the addition of the US sovereign wealth fund and its BTC holdings, a precedent has been set for nation states to hold and/or accumulate BTC.
It has never been easier for market participants across the entire spectrum of size to buy and hold BTC.
- Psychological gap to $370k.
This is the big one and the main reason the targets are so high. Psychological levels play a much larger role in price action than most believe. There are certain ranges where price has a lot of psychological resistance clustered together and ranges where price has virtually no psychological resistance. Above $100k, BTC hits one of these large psychological resistance gaps where price tends to move aggressively.
When there are large buying frenzies driven by FOMO, these psychological levels play a big role, while fundamental valuation models take a back seat. Note how aggressively price moves to the upside in these gaps.
In this article, we're not going to go into detail on how these levels are derived or why they work the way they do, we've covered it before in the Pro Group.
Here's DOGE as another example:
Here's LTC. Note how fast price moves through the gaps.
Wow look at the Copper markup. Zero resistance until the psychological levels.
Here's ETH:
Now if you go back and look at the BTC chart, we're on the cusp of one of these gaps where price can move fast and aggressively to the upside. All we're missing is a buying frenzy, which leads us to point 3.
- The only catalysts left are big ones.
- Nation states buying.
- Large companies buying.
These are the only things left for BTC that really move the needle.
If the US, China, Russia, Brazil, India, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, JPMorgan, or Mastercard etc. buy and hold BTC, this is not something that casually sends BTC to $120k then back into a bear market where we see $40k BTC. A few of these entitities actively and openly accumulating BTC likely creates a buying frenzy strong enough to send BTC to our $300k+ target.
- Active accumulation of BTC by large entities is not far-fetched. It's incentivized and it's already happening.
Russia Leans on Crypto for Oil Trade
Multiple Governments Approach Binance about Crypto Reserves
US Sovereign Wealth Fund Cleared to Buy BTC in Budget Neutral Manner
- Additional drivers of BTC price.
- US treasuries long-tail (debt spiral), treasury buybacks, global liquidity.
The US treasury market (debt) is struggling to find buyers. This is why gold is moving aggressively upwards. If no one steps in to buy US debt at current rates, rates will continue to go higher and the US may be forced to buyback treasuries (inflationary). The alternative is allowing rates to go higher, but then the US has to refinance current debt at higher rates (leads to a debt spiral as US then has to pay a more interest on said debt).
BTC as an artificially scarce asset tends to perform well in line with global liquidity growth (money supply going up). Many are betting that it will start behaving like Gold in the scenarios outlined above.
b. Capital controls (trade war).
A global trade war is the most bullish thin imaginable for BTC. BTC is decentralized, meaning it can be sent without the need for a 3rd party. It can't be frozen.
Therefore, it's particularly useful in a world where governments attempt to control and restrict the flow of capital in and out of various countries. Additionally, trade wars wreak havoc on FX volatility, making it riskier and less attractive to hold money in any one nations currency (what if they get targeted with tariffs, sanctions, etc?). This is another reason gold is skyrocketing since the tariff announcements from the Trump administration.
The difference is BTC (digital) is logistically much easier to send across borders than gold (physical).
- Stablecoins to create demand for treasuries.
The US government is very incentivized to push the price of crypto higher in order to create more demand for stablecoins, and thus, more demand for US treasuries.
Crypto czar David Sacks sees stablecoins creating ‘trillions’ in demand for Treasuries
