FTX liquidation | Published Sep 11, 2023
On September 13 a Delaware court will decide to approve or deny FTX’s plan to sell ~$500M in crypto (predominantly BTC and ETH) in batches over the course of 5 weeks.
Here is an updated visualization of FTX’s assets:
MATIC, TRX, DOGE, APT, & SOL face large sell pressure in relation to their weekly trade volume
A few notes:
Justin Sun (founder of Tron) has stated he is will to buy on the TRX in an OTC trade:
Most of the $720M in SOL is locked in vesting schedules until 2025-2028:
Some have estimated that as little as $16M in SOL is actually liquid for FTX to sell:
As mentioned by some analysts on Twitter, the market is likely over-reacting to the downside pre-maturely considering that most of the SOL is locked, Galaxy Digital (the entity facilitating the selling of FTX’s assets) will sell some OTC and sell slowly over time to avoid large price impact, and they will only be allowed to sell $200M in assets per week, ensuring a slower sell off.
The key take-away here is that for Solana in particular, the market may over-react to the downside, creating a buy opportunity. Solana has shown a high propensity to bounce back after large capitulations since the FTX collapse:
Support levels for $SOL Include $16.50, $16, $12, and $10.
The $8 - $10 range is a strong buy range for SOL for Sistine Research.