ETH/BTC Long | Structural Flows

ETH/BTC Long | Structural Flows

ETH/BTC Structural Flows

Sources of Bitcoin sell pressure in 2023:

  • Miners selling to cover electricity costs
  • Miners selling reserves to cover overhead while BTC mining is unprofitable
  • Mt. Gox BTC release (137k BTC) - release date unknown, but deadline for creditors to fill out the repayment form is Jan 10th 2023.
  • Grayscale GBTC Trust - potential sale of BTC in a tender offer.
  • Potential auction of BTC from 2016 BTC hack.

Sources of Ethereum sell pressure in 2023:

  • Potential ETHE Grayscale Trust sell off.
  • Staking withdrawals enabled (estimated around March 2023). This is arguably bullish as it gives Ethereum stakers more confidence to stake.

The play:

Long ETH, short BTC on low leverage based on BTC sell pressure outweighing ETH sell pressure for foreseeable future.