ETH/BTC Structural Flows
Sources of Bitcoin sell pressure in 2023:
- Miners selling to cover electricity costs
- Miners selling reserves to cover overhead while BTC mining is unprofitable
- Mt. Gox BTC release (137k BTC) - release date unknown, but deadline for creditors to fill out the repayment form is Jan 10th 2023.
- Grayscale GBTC Trust - potential sale of BTC in a tender offer.
- Potential auction of BTC from 2016 BTC hack.
Sources of Ethereum sell pressure in 2023:
- Potential ETHE Grayscale Trust sell off.
- Staking withdrawals enabled (estimated around March 2023). This is arguably bullish as it gives Ethereum stakers more confidence to stake.
Long ETH, short BTC on low leverage based on BTC sell pressure outweighing ETH sell pressure for foreseeable future.