ETH/BTC Structural Flows
Sources of Bitcoin sell pressure in 2023:
- Miners selling to cover electricity costs
- Miners selling reserves to cover overhead while BTC mining is unprofitable
- Mt. Gox BTC release (137k BTC) - release date unknown, but deadline for creditors to fill out the repayment form is Jan 10th 2023.
- Grayscale GBTC Trust - potential sale of BTC in a tender offer.
- Potential auction of BTC from 2016 BTC hack.
Sources of Ethereum sell pressure in 2023:
- Potential ETHE Grayscale Trust sell off.
- Staking withdrawals enabled (estimated around March 2023). This is arguably bullish as it gives Ethereum stakers more confidence to stake.
The play:
Long ETH, short BTC on low leverage based on BTC sell pressure outweighing ETH sell pressure for foreseeable future.