$TRUMP

$TRUMP | September 1, 2023 | 🔴 HIGH RISK

  1. This is not a political stance in any way shape or form.
  2. This is an ultra high risk play, not suitable for most.
  3. September is still largely a risk off month and not currently suitable towards investing in memecoins. That said, we’ve taken a small position in $TRUMP but remain mostly in stablecoins.
  4. We do not view this as a high-level research post and thus also posted about it publicly on Twitter, but wanted to also add some commentary here for those who do not follow on Twitter.

Overview

There is a Donald Trump memecoin (not sanctioned or run by the Trump team) that has been slowly grinding along in an uptrend for the last 3 weeks:

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The coin has a supply of 47M and it has a current fully diluted market cap of <$4M.

The coin has a 1% sell tax with 50% going to the Donald Trump campaign and 50% going to a disabled veterans charity.

The team currently hosts twitter spaces twice per week with two hosts who have large followings:

Quite simply, we view this as an ultra low-cap memecoin that gives some high risk financial exposure to one of the most famous people on the planet, who is set to be center stage in the eyes of the world between now and the 2024 US presidential election.

Donald Trump is bombastic, highly controversial, and gets views:

264M views on Tucker:

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258M views on his mugshot:

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Hundreds of millions more views on various Donald Trump raps, memes, and discussions across Twitter, TikTok, and YouTube.

At some level the man is a walking, talking meme.

The investment thesis is straght-forward:

  • Throughout the bear market, we’ve seen absurd memecoins get traction and take off. High performing narratives have largely been dominated by the most degenerate, low quality coins and platforms such as PEPE, Rollbit, FriendTech, and other various memecoins.
  • There is a small chance this TRUMP token tracks as exposure to Trump’s social presence.
  • There is a LARGE chance this TRUMP token rug pulls or bleeds to zero over time.

2024 Presidential Election

Given the controversy surrounding US presidential elections, it would not be surprising to see political tokens emerge that act as speculative donation vehicles for candidates and parties.

Think along the lines of DNC (Democrat Coin), GOP (Republican Coin), Libertarian Coin, Obama Coin, Clinton Coin, Trump Coin, etc.

Other Concerns

Given the relatively lower buying power of ETH compared to when it was $1800+, the bearishness of the market, the low perceived likelihood of success, and our prior historical assessment of September market performance, we believe this coin is not suitable for most investors.

If you are looking to take a small allocation to gain high-risk exposure to Trump’s social presence, this may be worth considering.

Lastly, if this coin does not find traction and see positive price action within the next several weeks, it’s likely best to cut it and count it as a loss. This is not something worth holding for a long period of time.

Memecoin investors often spray and pray across dozens of memecoins to find the one that blows up. Most do not, so once again be aware that this is a low win-rate play.

As always, nothing here is financial advice.

Resources

Contract address: 0x576e2bed8f7b46d34016198911cdf9886f78bea7

Where to buy: Uniswap → paste the contract address into Uniswap to find the coin.

(If you do not have experience with Uniswap, it’s probably best to sit this one out.)