Trade Idea: Short $NVDA
NVDA historically tops with a failed breakout of an ascending wedge:
NVDA is currently presenting a similar setup, however, there is also a much larger wedge at play that could present a better opportunity to short. The trade idea is to buy put options for May - September if NVDA trades over $300 by April.
If this were to happen, NVDA would be particularly vulnerable to tax selling in April as many people who bought the April tariff dip would be incentivized to sell after their 1 year long-term capital gains tax transition.
Puts expiring June 2025 - May 2026 may provide value as downside after a major blowoff event generally lasts 1 year.
Strikes ranging from $50 - $150 could realistically be hit, given historical 50% - 90% drawdowns after blow off events.
